Mark Twain once said that “history never repeats itself, but it often rhymes.” This is as true now as it was then. I love to study history because if you know where we have been, you will be able to see the precursors of trends in where we are going.
When you go back in time and look at the maturation process of industries, from concept to maturation, they typically mature in three waves. This applies to oil, the internal combustion engine, trains, planes, the internet, crypto, Space, and more. Now for time’s sake, I will keep it simple.
The first wave is typically driven by niche interests, whether it is government or private, and the technology is created and nurtured to a point where it gains momentum. Then interest in the technology dies off for some time, resulting in stagnation.
The second wave is where the first true believers dive into the technology and they find new uses. This results in a subsection of society embracing the technology and creating hype and a massive amount of money inflow. This hype inevitability results in a bubble. This bubble then pops, money is lost and it results in another period of stagnation and disinterest.
The third wave is where the true maturation of the technology occurs. This wave is where the majority of the public embraces the technology resulting in a large enough demand to support the myriad of businesses that pop up.
I lay the above out to illustrate where we are in the maturation of Space’s ecosystem. We are in the early days of the second wave of the maturation process. In this wave, you will see the foundational infrastructure laid out. Upon this foundation, there will be a plethora of businesses built that will change our lives in a very big way, both in Space and here on Earth.
Yes, there will be a bubble that forms, and yes it will pop, but the foundation will be laid for humanity to start to spread to the stars and that is perhaps the most important thing we have ever done as a species.
Ad Astra.